The 2025 UBS Global Art Market Report, produced in collaboration with Art Basel, offers a nuanced perspective on the art market's performance in 2024. While the headline figures indicate a modest 4% increase in global sales to $67.8 billion, the underlying dynamics reveal significant shifts in buyer behavior and market structure. I'll try to break it down for you below based on what I have read and my understanding of shifts being reported.
Importantly, there are two different worlds when it comes to art buying. Investment driven purchases that sell for millions - these are your Picasso type auction sales. International fairs and auction houses like Art Basel and Sotheby's typically display and sell these painters and sculptors. The artist's name recognition or "brand strength" is driving their prices. In most cases, the money from a sale is going to the auction house and the collector selling the piece.
The other art world, the one our gallery lives in, is the art driven market defined by long term investment, with gradual value increase. In this world, money from sales goes to the artist and the gallery. These are painters who essentially get a raise each year as their work grows in popularity and demand. As they are discovered by more collectors their painting value and their secondary market (resale of work) will grow.
Below are the highlights from the report and at the bottom I'll break it down a bit for you based on my interpretation of the percentages.
A Market in Transition
The art market's growth in 2024 was primarily driven by high-end sales, with ultra-wealthy collectors continuing to dominate spending. Large dealers, particularly those with turnovers exceeding $10 million, reported significant gains, especially through art fairs and private sales. Auction sales also increased by 5% to $30.6 billion, with the U.S. maintaining its position as the leading auction market.
However, this growth was not uniform across all market segments. Smaller dealers, especially those operating in regions with limited institutional support, continued to face challenges, including rising operational costs and inconsistent buyer engagement. Online sales accounted for 15% of the total market, marking a slight decline from recent highs, as hybrid sales strategies became the new standard.
Shifting Collector Demographics
The report highlights the growing influence of younger collectors under 40, who are more digitally fluent and tend to collect across various categories, including fine art, design, and digital works . While this demographic shows increased caution, preferring artists with a proven market presence, their evolving behaviors suggest potential growth in under-recognized markets, such as Brazil and Japan.
Implications for the Art World
What does this all mean moving forward and looking back? The 2024 art market reflects a very complex landscape where high-end sales still drive overall growth, but smaller dealers and emerging markets, although facing ongoing pressures, are still growing. The rise of younger, socially conscious collectors offers new opportunities, yet the benefits of market growth remain unevenly distributed. As the art world navigates these shifts, adaptability and strategic engagement with evolving collector demographics will be crucial for sustained success.
Notably, it appears that trophy buying has started to dry up. Looking at the overall picture, these art sales dropped 12% last year. That's a significant drop. Auction sales of works selling for over 10M fell 39% last year. However, people are/were still buying, they just weren't buying a crazy expensive Monet. (Remember one 100M Monet sale can help shift the auction market). This I would describe as not a "volume" but "value" collapse. In that same report, sales of works at auction under $5,000 went up 7%, which is what we also saw last year here in our Charleston gallery - woohoo!
The big takeaway is there was a 17% growth for smaller art markets (sometimes described as grass roots or regional). Also, it looks like younger collectors just aren't buying like their parents did, however, they are buying. New buyers accounted for 44% for dealers' overall sales.
Looking ahead is of course impossible but with these tariffs potentially freezing cross border sales or adding exorbitant costs to move art around the globe, I can imagine the uber wealthy that drive the auction and resale market will be buying less and being more modest, taking a wait and see approach.
However, the increase in younger buyers we saw last year, who want to fill walls with art they can enjoy, will continue to grow. They may not be adorning their walls with 100M Monets but they are good investors and will be buying mid-career artists who's work has proven to increase in demand and value over time.
It's worth noting that 31 art fairs shut down last year. When fairs started they were gallery focused. I would argue greed seeped in, with the fairs charging exorbitant costs for booths, some taking percentages of sales, and overall not providing the advertising and audience they promised. I have never been a huge art fair fan, which mostly stems from how incredibly breathtaking a painting looks on our gallery's 200 year old brick walls with perfect lighting and just the right amount of breathing space. Why pay to take art to a crowded booth when it shines 100 times more brightly right here?
In summary, despite the incoming uncertainty from American foreign economic policy, the art-driven art market continues to adapt and thrive. Investment in art you love for its own sake will always reward you more continuously and holistically than art as commodity investment.
